Forecasting EPR Costs: Helping Multinational Businesses Plan Ahead
by Ana Pilcher May at 17:51 in Content

​I joined Lorax EPI as an Environmental Compliance Consultant in 2024, following roles in scientific research and project management within a consultancy environment. These experiences gave me a rigorous, analytical approach to problem-solving and a strong foundation in delivering customer-focused projects.

Since joining Lorax EPI, I've worked on a diverse range of projects, including creating a global packaging legislation tracker, assessing packaging recyclability, and determining company obligations under new selling strategies. My specialist area is UK Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), complemented by a broad understanding of global producer responsibility requirements.

What I enjoy most is taking complex legislation and translating it into clear, practical actions that businesses can implement with confidence. This often means combining a global perspective on legislative requirements with data-driven analysis—such as modelling EPR fee structures to help businesses forecast costs and make informed strategic decisions.

Forecasting EPR Costs: Helping Multinational Businesses Plan Ahead

Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) regulations are changing rapidly across global markets, and for large multinational businesses, understanding future EPR costs is essential for strategic planning. One of our recent projects involved supporting a multi-brand client in modelling their EPR fees across multiple markets over the next ten years.

To do this, I analysed historical fee changes across markets over the past five years and combined these patterns with inflation forecasts to project costs forward. I also factored in potential regulatory developments, such as scope expansions and eco-modulation (fee bonuses and maluses linked to packaging design), which can significantly influence costs by rewarding recyclable, lightweight materials and penalising harder-to-recycle formats.

To make the analysis actionable, the client asked us to model the impact of specific packaging design changes on selected products across key markets. For example:

• What happens if PVC containing blisters packs are changed to a HDPE tub?
• If a composite pack is swapped for a heavier but recyclable mono-material design?
• Does 'paperisation' actually reduce fees when paper is heavier?
• Do certain design changes lower fees in some markets but increase them in others?

These scenarios provided valuable insight into how design decisions could affect compliance costs over time.

My Approach

I combined historical data, regulatory intelligence, and predictive modelling to build a robust forecasting tool tailored to the client's portfolio. First, I gathered fee data and regulatory updates from multiple markets to identify patterns and likely trajectories. Then I applied inflation forecasts and projected fee increases to create a multi-year outlook. Next, I incorporated modelling for design-based incentives and penalties, simulating how recyclability bonuses or maluses for complex materials could alter costs. Finally, I modelled the client's specific product scenarios to show the financial impact of material changes across different jurisdictions.

The Outcome

The result was a clear, data-driven view of future EPR costs globally, under multiple scenarios for the next 10 years, using their actual packaging data. Our client gained:

• A ten-year forecast of their fees across all relevant markets
• Insight into how packaging design choices could reduce or increase costs
• A strategic tool to support budgeting, material selection, and sustainability planning

This analysis gave the client confidence to make informed decisions today that will pay off tomorrow.

Beyond Compliance

At Lorax EPI, we do more than help businesses meet current obligations. We provide forward-looking insights that enable smarter decisions and long-term resilience. Projects like this show how we combine regulatory expertise with analytical modelling to help businesses anticipate change and stay ahead.

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